Will China slowdown considerably in 2H11?

Will China slowdown its growth rate at the end of this year? It seems, through the chart below, that it occurs every year.

What are the drivers of this pattern? Is this really a pattern or coincidence?

Public policy/government stimulus? 

From Mosler:

China GDP history

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on June 8th, 2011

This is year over year ‘real’ GDP growth.

Note the recurring first quarter spikes followed by dips, presumably due to front loading annual state spending and lending.

Not much of a spike this year, due to cutbacks in state spending/lending, but the reduced spending/lending that resulted in the reported growth was likewise front loaded for 2011.
Question now is what the traditional second half dip will look like.
Seems to me it could get pretty ugly.

Also, Japan’s earthquake looks to have weakened world growth more than originally expected. And it’s all probably path dependent, meaning growth simply resumes from the lower, post quake base, especially in light of their reluctance to increase their deficit spending.

Europe is also weakening due to self imposed austerity.

And the US is heck bent on doing same as both parties agree on the need for multi trillions of deficit reduction, while Fed policies continue to work to reduce govt. interest payments to the economy and continue to shift income from savers to bank net interest margins.
H2 is still looking hopeless to me, and also looking like we’re flying without a net.

*Disclaimer: charts and data are presented as I receive/see them. Sources are usually not checked for validation and my own calculations are of 'back of the envelope'-type. I am aware that some math that I do myself might be wrong and/or misleading to some extent. In financial markets the rate of change of economic data is often more important than the actual level and the perception of 'what is priced in' is more important than 'what is actually going to happen'. This is actually the way people pick entry and exit points. So... yes, sometimes you might say 'This guy is an idiot, this is way wrong!' with a high conviction, being right. Not to worry. Markets are made of expectations and the clash of conviction between its participants. Portfolio managers know that being an idiot is sometimes profitable and being smart is often a bad choice. It is all reality, sometimes good, sometimes bad. By the way: corrections to my analysis and intelligent debate is welcome. theintriguedtrader AT gmail do com