Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Richard Duncan on China, Europe, & QE3

Richard Duncan, author of "The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures", a book that was spot-on with the crisis of 2007-2009 (ongoing actually) brings some good simple arguments about the current economic outlook.

This material was taken from his website which has some great articles on a variety of topics, including China. I believe he sides with me on a short CNY trade.

I like these special parts below:
RD: When QE2 stops, the US economy will weaken again, the global economy will weaken, stock and bond prices will drop. So, interest rates will go up, commodity prices will drop. The US economy will start moving back towards a recession and, around the end of the year, we’ll have QE3 or another round of quantitative easing, and then everything will spike up again — equities, bonds, commodities, all sorts of assets.
I believe that the global economy is a very sick patient that is being kept alive by life support primarily in the form of budget deficits. The US deficit has reached 10% of GDP, or US$1.4 trillion ($1.7 trillion). It looks like the US economy might still grow more than 2% this year, but if it weren’t for the 10% budget deficit, the growth rate might actually be minus 8% or far slower.
2011 06 01 - Richard Duncan on China, Europe & QE3

*Disclaimer: charts and data are presented as I receive/see them. Sources are usually not checked for validation and my own calculations are of 'back of the envelope'-type. I am aware that some math that I do myself might be wrong and/or misleading to some extent. In financial markets the rate of change of economic data is often more important than the actual level and the perception of 'what is priced in' is more important than 'what is actually going to happen'. This is actually the way people pick entry and exit points. So... yes, sometimes you might say 'This guy is an idiot, this is way wrong!' with a high conviction, being right. Not to worry. Markets are made of expectations and the clash of conviction between its participants. Portfolio managers know that being an idiot is sometimes profitable and being smart is often a bad choice. It is all reality, sometimes good, sometimes bad. By the way: corrections to my analysis and intelligent debate is welcome. theintriguedtrader AT gmail do com

No comments:

Post a Comment