Monday, June 13, 2011

And the European Debt market doesn't look too good...

Just a few charts to illustrate how the market is looking at the whole sovereign debt debacle, spreading over to the banking sector.

Portuguese 5y and 10y bonds have now reached new yield-highs.
The longer-maturity bonds from Italy and Spain are looking dangerous yield-wise. Flag formations there. If a break-out to the upside occurs it should be nasty.

What are the cards like up european policy makers sleeves?

Then scroll down for bank stocks.
French banks have done alright. Still well from 2010's lows.
On the other hand... Spanish banks are a bit worse.
And Italian banks have been disastrous. Close to 2009's lows.
And for comparison, Bank of America (BAC) is not well either...

Italian 2y Bonds:

Italian 5y Bonds:

Italian 10y Bonds:

Portuguese 2y Bonds:

Portuguese 5y Bonds... 

Portuguese 10y Bonds...

Spanish 5y Bonds:

Spanigh 10yr Bonds:

*Disclaimer: charts and data are presented as I receive/see them. Sources are usually not checked for validation and my own calculations are of 'back of the envelope'-type. I am aware that some math that I do myself might be wrong and/or misleading to some extent. In financial markets the rate of change of economic data is often more important than the actual level and the perception of 'what is priced in' is more important than 'what is actually going to happen'. This is actually the way people pick entry and exit points. So... yes, sometimes you might say 'This guy is an idiot, this is way wrong!' with a high conviction, being right. Not to worry. Markets are made of expectations and the clash of conviction between its participants. Portfolio managers know that being an idiot is sometimes profitable and being smart is often a bad choice. It is all reality, sometimes good, sometimes bad. By the way: corrections to my analysis and intelligent debate is welcome. theintriguedtrader AT gmail do com

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