Monday, June 6, 2011

NFIB doesn't look optimistic on jobs.

 And those small and medium businesses that really generate the much wanted job growth... and this is quite serious if you consider that these are the guys who actually do the difference in the long run.
For Immediate Release

Contact: Cynthia Magnuson, 202-314-2036 or

WASHINGTON, D.C., June 2, 2011
Chief economist for the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) William C. Dunkelberg, issued the following statement on May job numbers, based on NFIB’s monthly economic survey that will be released on Tuesday, June 14, 2011. The survey was conducted in May and reflects 733 randomly-sampled small-business owner respondents:

“After solid job gains early in the year, progress has slowed to a trickle. The two NFIB indicators—job openings and hiring plans—that predict the unemployment rate both fell, suggesting that the rate itself will rise. 

“May’s job numbers will disappoint; meaningful job creation on Main Street has collapsed. 

“Twelve percent (seasonally adjusted) of small-business owners reported unfilled job openings (down 2 points). Further indications of minimal future growth include the fact that in the next three months, 13 percent plan to increase employment (down 3 points), and 8 percent plan to reduce their workforce (up 2 points). That yields a seasonally adjusted net negative 1 percent of owners planning to create new jobs, a 3 point loss from April.

“Overall, reports of job reductions have returned to historically normal levels. However, the percent of owners hiring has not recovered to levels historically observed after two years of expansion. With one in four owners still reporting ‘weak sales’ as their  No. 1 business problem, there is little need to add employees, especially with the uncertainty about future labor costs arising from new regulation and legislation. And, if Congress doesn’t deal effectively with the trillion dollar deficit, we’ve got plenty to keep us worried.” 

*Disclaimer: charts and data are presented as I receive/see them. Sources are usually not checked for validation and my own calculations are of 'back of the envelope'-type. I am aware that some math that I do myself might be wrong and/or misleading to some extent. In financial markets the rate of change of economic data is often more important than the actual level and the perception of 'what is priced in' is more important than 'what is actually going to happen'. This is actually the way people pick entry and exit points. So... yes, sometimes you might say 'This guy is an idiot, this is way wrong!' with a high conviction, being right. Not to worry. Markets are made of expectations and the clash of conviction between its participants. Portfolio managers know that being an idiot is sometimes profitable and being smart is often a bad choice. It is all reality, sometimes good, sometimes bad. By the way: corrections to my analysis and intelligent debate is welcome. theintriguedtrader AT gmail do com

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