Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Hugh Hendry - Eclectica Fund July 2011 +4.6% MoM

I like the guy, you know. So I am happy his views are paying off.
Mr. Hendry's letter is out. His fund is +4.6% in July, total YTD > +8.0%.

I wish he would add a bit more of his macro views in his letter.
I liked the idea of the Danish CDS, but the German CDS, in my opinion, has about the same effect.
Danish CDS is already @ 100/108bp, as of 2pm Rio-time.
So @ 21bps... it seems he got that one quite right too. It's likely he nailed it around the lows when opening the positions.

*Disclaimer: charts and data are presented as I receive/see them. Sources are usually not checked for validation and my own calculations are of 'back of the envelope'-type. I am aware that some math that I do myself might be wrong and/or misleading to some extent. In financial markets the rate of change of economic data is often more important than the actual level and the perception of 'what is priced in' is more important than 'what is actually going to happen'. This is actually the way people pick entry and exit points. So... yes, sometimes you might say 'This guy is an idiot, this is way wrong!' with a high conviction, being right. Not to worry. Markets are made of expectations and the clash of conviction between its participants. Portfolio managers know that being an idiot is sometimes profitable and being smart is often a bad choice. It is all reality, sometimes good, sometimes bad. By the way: corrections to my analysis and intelligent debate is welcome. theintriguedtrader AT gmail do com

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