Monday, June 6, 2011

BBC HARDTalk: Jim Rogers

Jim Rogers is among the top 10 people that I admire the most. Certainly an astute investor and human being.
His background, his history as a professional and humble straight forward person who does get the big picture.

All of his books are brilliantly inspiring. A must read for everyone minimally interested in global affairs.
Trying to understand what goes on around the world I'm on my way to my 30th country this year and I hope someday that round-the-world trip will happen with more time in hand. Give me time.

He was on BBC Hard Talk last month and I think everyone should watch what he has to say:

- Short EM stocks (India, for example)
- Not short China
- Short Tech in the US
- US + UK + Europe = bankrupt. Better to be allocated to a dipping-economy (Asia for example) than allocated to a bankrupt economy.
- Property bubble in Coastal urban China. Chinese real estate especulators likely going broke, but that is not the big chinese picture: you cannot buy 1 house with no job and no money down unlike the US a few years ago.
- Fitch and rating agencies: don't even listen to them...
- China's endgame is WATER. They should throw hundreds of billions of money into that. Societies die when they have water problems.
- Crude supply has been decreasing globally: 150-200 USD/barrel crude is very likely, no timestamp on this.
- America: largest debtor nation in the history of the world. Nobody gets out of this situation without a crisis.
- Education bubble: he went to Ivy League and it was a great experience. "They have good PR". Paying USD 400k for 4 years in Princeton is NOT worth it.
- The Fed chairman doesn't understand currencies: "I assure you"
- The GBP was once a reserve currency: it changed

First part:

Second part:
(best part when he says 'America is in some serious sh.. trouble' haha)

*Disclaimer: charts and data are presented as I receive/see them. Sources are usually not checked for validation and my own calculations are of 'back of the envelope'-type. I am aware that some math that I do myself might be wrong and/or misleading to some extent. In financial markets the rate of change of economic data is often more important than the actual level and the perception of 'what is priced in' is more important than 'what is actually going to happen'. This is actually the way people pick entry and exit points. So... yes, sometimes you might say 'This guy is an idiot, this is way wrong!' with a high conviction, being right. Not to worry. Markets are made of expectations and the clash of conviction between its participants. Portfolio managers know that being an idiot is sometimes profitable and being smart is often a bad choice. It is all reality, sometimes good, sometimes bad. By the way: corrections to my analysis and intelligent debate is welcome. theintriguedtrader AT gmail do com

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