Thursday, June 9, 2011

SocGen Albert Edwards - Some 'Ice Age' charts

And Mr. Edwards comes again with the "Ice Age" charts.

Always an interesting read, for sure. One that I agree with, unfortunately. in terms of direction.

The point to which I disagree with him is that till his case happens (S&P @ 400 points and bond yields [30y?] below 2%) there should be a lot of opportunities. Especially outside of the US.

And then bond yields should soar with debt monetization taking place in many developed economies...

SocGen Alternative View - 2011 06 09 - Albert Edwards - As growth ebbs away it's time to re-visit some of o...

*Disclaimer: charts and data are presented as I receive/see them. Sources are usually not checked for validation and my own calculations are of 'back of the envelope'-type. I am aware that some math that I do myself might be wrong and/or misleading to some extent. In financial markets the rate of change of economic data is often more important than the actual level and the perception of 'what is priced in' is more important than 'what is actually going to happen'. This is actually the way people pick entry and exit points. So... yes, sometimes you might say 'This guy is an idiot, this is way wrong!' with a high conviction, being right. Not to worry. Markets are made of expectations and the clash of conviction between its participants. Portfolio managers know that being an idiot is sometimes profitable and being smart is often a bad choice. It is all reality, sometimes good, sometimes bad. By the way: corrections to my analysis and intelligent debate is welcome. theintriguedtrader AT gmail do com

No comments:

Post a Comment