Wednesday, June 15, 2011

And the European Debt market doesn't look any good...

So last night Moody's put BNP Paribas, SocGen and Credit Agricole, french banks, on review, with negative outlook due to Greek debt in their balance sheets.
We got news from European officials that nothing was decided about the Greek bailout and this will have to wait until July.

Even with european industrial production numbers coming in better than expected (+0.2% vs expected -0.2%) the EUR took a beating against the USD, the CHF and other currencies.

And... the European Periphery Debt charts look horrible. Worse than 2 days ago.
What will happen if Spain or Italy break-out to the upside?

I don't want to be caught long these securities, that I am sure.

*Disclaimer: charts and data are presented as I receive/see them. Sources are usually not checked for validation and my own calculations are of 'back of the envelope'-type. I am aware that some math that I do myself might be wrong and/or misleading to some extent. In financial markets the rate of change of economic data is often more important than the actual level and the perception of 'what is priced in' is more important than 'what is actually going to happen'. This is actually the way people pick entry and exit points. So... yes, sometimes you might say 'This guy is an idiot, this is way wrong!' with a high conviction, being right. Not to worry. Markets are made of expectations and the clash of conviction between its participants. Portfolio managers know that being an idiot is sometimes profitable and being smart is often a bad choice. It is all reality, sometimes good, sometimes bad. By the way: corrections to my analysis and intelligent debate is welcome. theintriguedtrader AT gmail do com

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