Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Some updates on Japanese Economic Data

Some time ago I presented my bearish case on the Japanese economy

Yes, the earthquake + tsunami + ongoing nuclear issue have made things worse short term, but some people believe that in economic terms the future now looks brighter because the necessary reconstruction efforts will help the japanese.

I strongly disagree.

Some economic indicators haven't really recovered from pre-crisis levels and now, with this new hit, it will be even harder.

So a few updates of high-frequency data below...

*Disclaimer: charts and data are presented as I receive/see them. Sources are usually not checked for validation and my own calculations are of 'back of the envelope'-type. I am aware that some math that I do myself might be wrong and/or misleading to some extent. In financial markets the rate of change of economic data is often more important than the actual level and the perception of 'what is priced in' is more important than 'what is actually going to happen'. This is actually the way people pick entry and exit points. So... yes, sometimes you might say 'This guy is an idiot, this is way wrong!' with a high conviction, being right. Not to worry. Markets are made of expectations and the clash of conviction between its participants. Portfolio managers know that being an idiot is sometimes profitable and being smart is often a bad choice. It is all reality, sometimes good, sometimes bad. By the way: corrections to my analysis and intelligent debate is welcome. theintriguedtrader AT gmail do com

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