Monday, May 30, 2011

Curious data from the Dept of Energy

The American DOE releases weekly information about crude oil and its products (inventories, production, consumption, imports, etc).

Below is a chart of the total Oil Products supplied (DOEDTPRD Index on BBG) (12-week rolling average), YoY change and absolute levels. This number is a representation of demand from refineries.

So you can see that compared to last year we are now seeing a reduction in demand and from the chart below that consumption levels is only higher than 2009 and 1998~ levels....

Further down... 2 more charts, same thing for Crude imports, excluding those for the Strategic Reserves: YoY reduction in imports and levels very low historically speaking.

Basically the same thing with a more noticeable downward trend as crude prices picked up starting in early 2000. Import levels have been trending higher at the moment, but there's a high upward trend in seasonality right now.. check YoY levels.

Is the US changing its energy source? From Crude Oil (and its products) to Nat Gas, Coal or anything else?
Or has demand really been lower? Or a combination of both?

*Disclaimer: charts and data are presented as I receive/see them. Sources are usually not checked for validation and my own calculations are of 'back of the envelope'-type. I am aware that some math that I do myself might be wrong and/or misleading to some extent. In financial markets the rate of change of economic data is often more important than the actual level and the perception of 'what is priced in' is more important than 'what is actually going to happen'. This is actually the way people pick entry and exit points. So... yes, sometimes you might say 'This guy is an idiot, this is way wrong!' with a high conviction, being right. Not to worry. Markets are made of expectations and the clash of conviction between its participants. Portfolio managers know that being an idiot is sometimes profitable and being smart is often a bad choice. It is all reality, sometimes good, sometimes bad. By the way: corrections to my analysis and intelligent debate is welcome. theintriguedtrader AT gmail do com

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