Friday, May 13, 2011

Some low-profile U.S. weekly data

There's some data that I would consider useful in gauging the pace of the US growth story and I think no one can deny this. Just look at late 2008's path compared to normal trends or 2007's curve.

Those are, already presented here, Edison US Electricity Output usage and American Association of Railroads Freight Carloads.

Shown below in 4-week moving averages:

For the Railroad thingie... considering the last data point vs 2010's 7-May data (52week change)... it is the worst YoY net-change since Jul2010. Too early to say whatever. But, you know. It's here.

For Electricity Output the data is the worst YoY since February, easily spotted on the chart too. So here, nothing standing out.

*Disclaimer: charts and data are presented as I receive/see them. Sources are usually not checked for validation and my own calculations are of 'back of the envelope'-type. I am aware that some math that I do myself might be wrong and/or misleading to some extent. In financial markets the rate of change of economic data is often more important than the actual level and the perception of 'what is priced in' is more important than 'what is actually going to happen'. This is actually the way people pick entry and exit points. So... yes, sometimes you might say 'This guy is an idiot, this is way wrong!' with a high conviction, being right. Not to worry. Markets are made of expectations and the clash of conviction between its participants. Portfolio managers know that being an idiot is sometimes profitable and being smart is often a bad choice. It is all reality, sometimes good, sometimes bad. By the way: corrections to my analysis and intelligent debate is welcome. theintriguedtrader AT gmail do com

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