Tuesday, May 10, 2011

NFIB Small Business out

And down. Around the same level as last October.

Calculated Risk has some charts on this 

I read somewhere the other day some interesting statistics about job growth in the U.S.
It mentioned that large companies, in the long-run, actually destroy jobs: automation, robotics, outsourcing, etc.
It mentioned that small and medium businesses were actually the largest driver of job creation in the U.S.
So I bring this morning's NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.

It is 3.3 points below the recent high in February (2 months ago). It is lowe than the 6-month moving average that has just stabilized.
It is 9.2 points below the average of 2000-2007.
And the table below shows that some (in my opinion) key aspects of the index are making new recent lows (marked with a red 'X').
The second month in a row that people expect the economy to actually get worse, the worst expectations in at least 6 months.
Plans to hire at the lows of at least 6 months, expectations of higher sales also at the lowest... BUT higher selling prices at the highest in as many months.

Speaking of a consumer-squeeze, right?

*Disclaimer: charts and data are presented as I receive/see them. Sources are usually not checked for validation and my own calculations are of 'back of the envelope'-type. I am aware that some math that I do myself might be wrong and/or misleading to some extent. In financial markets the rate of change of economic data is often more important than the actual level and the perception of 'what is priced in' is more important than 'what is actually going to happen'. This is actually the way people pick entry and exit points. So... yes, sometimes you might say 'This guy is an idiot, this is way wrong!' with a high conviction, being right. Not to worry. Markets are made of expectations and the clash of conviction between its participants. Portfolio managers know that being an idiot is sometimes profitable and being smart is often a bad choice. It is all reality, sometimes good, sometimes bad. By the way: corrections to my analysis and intelligent debate is welcome. theintriguedtrader AT gmail do com

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