Wednesday, May 25, 2011

MacroAdvisors out with 2Q GDP growth @ 2.8%

Krugman and Brad DeLong tell the world what Macro Advisors just downgraded their estimate of 2Q GDP down from 3.2% to 2.8%.

Brad says:
Time to push the panic button.
Macroeconomic Advisers is revising their tracking forecast of real GDP growth in the second quarter. It now looks as though, come July 1, that there will have been no gap-closing in the six quarters since the start of 2010.
That means that it is:
  • Time for Quantitative Easing III...
  • Time for pulling more spending from the future forward into the present, and pushing more taxes from the present back into the future...
  • Time to use Fannie and Freddie to (temporarily) nationalize mortgage finance and fix the ongoing foreclosure crisis...
  • Time for a weaker dollar...

*Disclaimer: charts and data are presented as I receive/see them. Sources are usually not checked for validation and my own calculations are of 'back of the envelope'-type. I am aware that some math that I do myself might be wrong and/or misleading to some extent. In financial markets the rate of change of economic data is often more important than the actual level and the perception of 'what is priced in' is more important than 'what is actually going to happen'. This is actually the way people pick entry and exit points. So... yes, sometimes you might say 'This guy is an idiot, this is way wrong!' with a high conviction, being right. Not to worry. Markets are made of expectations and the clash of conviction between its participants. Portfolio managers know that being an idiot is sometimes profitable and being smart is often a bad choice. It is all reality, sometimes good, sometimes bad. By the way: corrections to my analysis and intelligent debate is welcome. theintriguedtrader AT gmail do com

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