Friday, March 8, 2013

US Employment Report: charts

Today we say the US Employment numbers.

Ultimate Highlight, extracted from Goldman's piece on the release:

However, there was an unusually large 21k increase in motion picture & sound recording jobs.

Many more stars in America. Cool.

1/ Headline better than expectations
2/ Pick up in private hiring
3/ Pick up in hourly wages
4/ Pick up in Construction hiring

1/ But 3m moving average still trending down.
2/ Participation rate making new low.
3/ Average duration of unemployment spiking higher.
4/ Employment Diffusion index ticking lower, 4 months low.
5/ Full Time employment decreasing
6/ Increase in Part Time employment

1/ Employment / Population stable

*Disclaimer: charts and data are presented as I receive/see them. Sources are usually not checked for validation and my own calculations are of 'back of the envelope'-type. I am aware that some math that I do myself might be wrong and/or misleading to some extent. In financial markets the rate of change of economic data is often more important than the actual level and the perception of 'what is priced in' is more important than 'what is actually going to happen'. This is actually the way people pick entry and exit points. So... yes, sometimes you might say 'This guy is an idiot, this is way wrong!' with a high conviction, being right. Not to worry. Markets are made of expectations and the clash of conviction between its participants. Portfolio managers know that being an idiot is sometimes profitable and being smart is often a bad choice. It is all reality, sometimes good, sometimes bad. By the way: corrections to my analysis and intelligent debate is welcome. theintriguedtrader AT gmail do com

No comments:

Post a Comment