Friday, March 1, 2013

South Korean Trade Charts

[To smooth out Chinese New Year effects I added 3 month moving average charts at bottom]

It is interesting to look at these charts of South Korean trade.
Highly cyclical in nature, with similarity to the Japanese exports.

So some of it could be explained by the rise in KRWJPY or something, but I believe it is a sign the world isn't as good as people think and turbulent days are just emerging.
Korean exports just hit 2-3 year lows. It is a very different picture of "global growth is picking up".



But the overall Trade Balance, Net-Exports, keeps moving higher 12m rolling sum...

Adding the YoY change in 3-month moving averages to smooth out possible Chinese New Year effects... Imports still negative and little sign of recovery in Exports. That's a pretty bad sign in my humble opinion.

*Disclaimer: charts and data are presented as I receive/see them. Sources are usually not checked for validation and my own calculations are of 'back of the envelope'-type. I am aware that some math that I do myself might be wrong and/or misleading to some extent. In financial markets the rate of change of economic data is often more important than the actual level and the perception of 'what is priced in' is more important than 'what is actually going to happen'. This is actually the way people pick entry and exit points. So... yes, sometimes you might say 'This guy is an idiot, this is way wrong!' with a high conviction, being right. Not to worry. Markets are made of expectations and the clash of conviction between its participants. Portfolio managers know that being an idiot is sometimes profitable and being smart is often a bad choice. It is all reality, sometimes good, sometimes bad. By the way: corrections to my analysis and intelligent debate is welcome. theintriguedtrader AT gmail do com

No comments:

Post a Comment