Thursday, March 7, 2013

US Consumer, I mean, err Student, Credit brought to you by... the Goverment

Interesting charts. Basically all the increase in CPI-adjusted US Consumer credit came from Federally Backed Credit, ie: Student Loans.

Is the fiscal drag causing this 1/ pick up in Student Loans and overall 2/ drop in Non-Revolving Credit ex-SL?

Who knows. I just like digging into data.

Levels here...

MoM Changes here....

*Disclaimer: charts and data are presented as I receive/see them. Sources are usually not checked for validation and my own calculations are of 'back of the envelope'-type. I am aware that some math that I do myself might be wrong and/or misleading to some extent. In financial markets the rate of change of economic data is often more important than the actual level and the perception of 'what is priced in' is more important than 'what is actually going to happen'. This is actually the way people pick entry and exit points. So... yes, sometimes you might say 'This guy is an idiot, this is way wrong!' with a high conviction, being right. Not to worry. Markets are made of expectations and the clash of conviction between its participants. Portfolio managers know that being an idiot is sometimes profitable and being smart is often a bad choice. It is all reality, sometimes good, sometimes bad. By the way: corrections to my analysis and intelligent debate is welcome. theintriguedtrader AT gmail do com

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