Thursday, March 28, 2013

Mexican Trade and USD Debt - A Few Charts

Tomorrow is a holiday, so why not spend time looking through charts around 9pm?

I've been intrigued by global trade not recouping losses or just stabilizing, with little growth.

I'll just leave these charts on the Mexican February trade numbers. I am not analyzing the details either.

But I will say that I don't know where all those Chinese Exports went in Jan-Feb, because no other country I looked, that could be big enough to cause such a massive shift in Chinese Exports, showed any massive growth.

Now look at the USD against many currencies, from countries with beautiful Balance of Payments, especially those with positive current accounts helped by Net-Exports.
List who these are.
And tell me EM is not slowing down materially.
Now tell me what happens to balance sheets of countries/companies that issue in USD when the US Dollar goes up...

Oh.. cool.



*Disclaimer: charts and data are presented as I receive/see them. Sources are usually not checked for validation and my own calculations are of 'back of the envelope'-type. I am aware that some math that I do myself might be wrong and/or misleading to some extent. In financial markets the rate of change of economic data is often more important than the actual level and the perception of 'what is priced in' is more important than 'what is actually going to happen'. This is actually the way people pick entry and exit points. So... yes, sometimes you might say 'This guy is an idiot, this is way wrong!' with a high conviction, being right. Not to worry. Markets are made of expectations and the clash of conviction between its participants. Portfolio managers know that being an idiot is sometimes profitable and being smart is often a bad choice. It is all reality, sometimes good, sometimes bad. By the way: corrections to my analysis and intelligent debate is welcome. theintriguedtrader AT gmail do com

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