Friday, February 15, 2013

South Korea: Exports similarities + Monetary + Credit Growth

Just a few more charts on South Korea.
The most important one speaks about the impact of the weak JPY on the Korean exports.
That's a ranking on "Export Similarity Index" by the IMF, from 2008 study.
Germany is first, in a much weaker regional economy, but the regional economy is also in EUR.
And second.. SK.
And with Annual Exports accounting for 50% of GDP, I sense SK as fragile.

*Disclaimer: charts and data are presented as I receive/see them. Sources are usually not checked for validation and my own calculations are of 'back of the envelope'-type. I am aware that some math that I do myself might be wrong and/or misleading to some extent. In financial markets the rate of change of economic data is often more important than the actual level and the perception of 'what is priced in' is more important than 'what is actually going to happen'. This is actually the way people pick entry and exit points. So... yes, sometimes you might say 'This guy is an idiot, this is way wrong!' with a high conviction, being right. Not to worry. Markets are made of expectations and the clash of conviction between its participants. Portfolio managers know that being an idiot is sometimes profitable and being smart is often a bad choice. It is all reality, sometimes good, sometimes bad. By the way: corrections to my analysis and intelligent debate is welcome. theintriguedtrader AT gmail do com

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